长江有色：供应恐断链及高品质镍紧缺产业链龙头业绩飘红 4日镍价或上涨

Core Viewpoint - Nickel futures market is experiencing upward momentum driven by a weaker dollar, global mineral reserve plans, and macroeconomic factors supporting prices [1][2] Group 1: Market Performance - London nickel closed at 17,395 USD per ton, up 350 USD or 2.05% from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 10,074 contracts [1] - Shanghai nickel main contract 2603 closed at 135,770 CNY per ton, increasing by 3,100 CNY or 2.34% [1][2] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Global nickel supply is shifting from surplus to shortage due to tightening policies, geopolitical risks, and raw material shortages affecting high-quality nickel supply [2][3] - Demand is driven by the dual engines of new energy (high-nickel batteries) and stainless steel, with robust demand in emerging sectors offsetting traditional seasonal impacts [2][3] Group 3: Industry Leaders' Performance - Major nickel industry players are benefiting from rising nickel prices and demand, focusing on resource control and high-end capacity [3] - Domestic leaders like Huayou Cobalt and Greeenme are extending upstream into resource projects while also expanding into high-value downstream sectors [3] - The industry is characterized by a strong upstream, bottlenecks in midstream, and pressure in downstream processing due to high costs and structural raw material shortages [3] Group 4: Market Outlook - Nickel prices are expected to continue a strong upward trend, supported by macro liquidity, geopolitical risks, and supply-demand balance [4] - The core operational range for Shanghai nickel is projected to be between 135,000 and 136,000 CNY per ton [4]