为何关税未导致2025年美国通胀飙升

Core Viewpoint - The cost of tariffs in 2025 is primarily borne by U.S. companies, with a significant increase in tariff revenue and a delayed macroeconomic impact on inflation [1][5][15]. Tariff Revenue and Inflation - In 2025, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security collected $287 billion in tariffs, a 192% increase year-on-year, with one-third of this revenue generated in Q4, reflecting a 5.2% increase from the previous quarter [1]. - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) stabilized at 2.7% by the end of 2025, with core CPI growth at 2.6%, lower than the expected 3% [1]. Reasons for Limited Inflation Impact - Actual Tariff Rates Lower than Statutory Rates: Research indicates that the effective tariff rates are significantly lower than the official rates, with the average trade-weighted tariff peaking at 32.8% but the actual rate only reaching 14.1% by September 2025 [5][6]. - Inventory Strategies: Companies imported goods in advance and built up inventories, allowing them to delay price increases even after tariffs took effect [8][9]. - Cost Absorption by U.S. Companies: Studies show that U.S. companies have absorbed nearly all tariff costs, with exporters not significantly lowering prices to share the burden [11][12]. - Gradual Transmission of Tariff Effects: The impact of tariffs on retail prices has been gradual, with significant price increases only expected when tariffs reach around 20% [12][13]. Future Implications of Tariffs - Cost Transfer to Consumers: As companies deplete their low-cost inventories in 2026, they will likely begin passing on tariff costs to consumers, leading to potential price increases [16][17]. - Inflation Data Reflection: Analysts predict that the effects of tariffs will become more apparent in inflation data in 2026, with some expecting CPI to rise significantly due to cost transfers and supply constraints [18][19].