中指研究院：1月核心城市二手房成交回暖

Core Insights - The second-hand housing market in key cities continues to exhibit a "price-for-volume" characteristic as of January 2026, with a total of 118,000 transactions in 20 cities, reflecting a slight month-on-month decrease of 3.1% but a year-on-year increase of 15.3% [1][4] - Structural contradictions in the market remain prominent, particularly the widening price gap between new and second-hand homes in core cities like Shanghai and Beijing, which may hinder the "sell old to buy new" chain [4][10] Market Activity - In January 2026, Shanghai's second-hand housing transactions reached 22,800 units, showing a month-on-month increase of 1.1% and a year-on-year increase of 26.1%, indicating a high level of market activity [10] - In 2025, second-hand homes accounted for 83% of the total transaction volume in Shanghai, highlighting the dominance of the second-hand market [10] Policy Initiatives - Shanghai has recently launched a new policy to acquire second-hand homes for the purpose of providing affordable rental housing, with the first batch of acquisitions signed on February 2, 2026 [4][5] - The policy focuses on small-sized units, with specific criteria for acquisition, such as prioritizing homes built before 2000 and under 70 square meters, with a total price not exceeding 4 million yuan [4][9] Market Impact - The policy aims to stabilize price expectations by providing a clear exit channel for owners of older homes, thereby establishing a "price anchor" for related assets [5] - It seeks to activate the replacement chain and stimulate demand for improved housing, although efficiency may be constrained by regional limitations and price gradients [5] - The acquisition of second-hand homes is expected to enhance the supply of affordable rental housing in core areas, effectively matching the balance between work and residence [20][21] Rental Market Dynamics - As of January 2026, the average rent for ordinary residential properties in Shanghai was 81.50 yuan per square meter per month, with rents in core districts like Jing'an and Xuhui reaching 115.55 and 109.76 yuan per square meter, respectively [21] - The rental market's resilience, combined with declining housing prices, has improved the rental yield for certain neighborhoods, supporting the sustainability of the "purchase instead of build" model for affordable rental housing [21]