社会库存持续去库 预计碳酸锂期货仍在高位震荡

Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market for non-ferrous metals is showing positive trends, particularly in lithium carbonate, which has seen a price increase of 1.97% to 148,160.0 yuan/ton [1] Supply Side - Domestic lithium carbonate production decreased by 648 tons week-on-week to 21,600 tons [2] - Due to maintenance at some lithium salt plants, February's lithium carbonate production is expected to be 81,900 tons, a 16% decrease compared to the previous month [2] Inventory Side - Social inventory of lithium carbonate decreased by 1,414 tons week-on-week to 107,482 tons [2] - Downstream inventory increased by 3,007 tons to 40,599 tons, while other segments decreased by 3,590 tons to 47,880 tons, and upstream inventory decreased by 831 tons to 19,903 tons [2] Demand Side - The rapid development of the energy storage industry continues to support demand for lithium carbonate [2] - A recent notice from the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration encourages the construction and operation of long-duration energy storage, which may positively impact lithium carbonate demand and prices [2] Market Outlook - Social inventory continues to decline, maintaining strong fundamentals; however, pre-holiday stocking demand has largely been released, reducing support for the market before the Spring Festival [2] - It is expected that lithium carbonate will experience high-level fluctuations, with a recommendation to wait for stabilization before making low-cost investments [2]