Jin Tou Wang·2026-02-04 06:02Core Viewpoint - Recent fluctuations in international gold prices have been characterized by extreme volatility, with prices experiencing a "roller coaster" effect, dropping to $4,400 per ounce and then rebounding to $5,000 per ounce shortly after [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - On February 2, gold futures fell sharply to $4,400 per ounce, reflecting the market's vulnerability amid high volatility [2]. - The surge in gold prices since January has led to a historical peak in volatility, with a significant increase in trading activity among short-term bullish traders [2]. - The nomination of a hawkish Federal Reserve chair by Trump was identified as a trigger for the price drop, but the primary cause was attributed to forced liquidations and margin increases [2][3]. Group 2: Institutional Behavior - Major financial institutions, including JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs, have reduced their net long positions in gold from 35% to 22% since January 23, indicating a significant sell-off [2]. - Retail investors continued to buy at high prices, creating a scenario where institutions were "harvesting" profits while retail investors were left holding positions [2]. - Institutions sold off high-risk assets, including gold, to meet margin calls, further exacerbating price volatility [2]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - Key support levels for gold prices are identified between $4,600 and $4,700 per ounce, which is crucial for maintaining market stability [4]. - If prices fall below this support range, further declines could target $4,400 to $4,500 per ounce, which is viewed as a strong support level by market participants [4]. - As the Chinese New Year approaches, physical demand for gold is expected to increase, potentially leading to a technical rebound if prices reach the identified support levels [4].