智通财经网·2026-02-04 06:06Group 1 - The Indian rupee has experienced its strongest rally in seven years, providing the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) with an opportunity to rebuild foreign exchange reserves, which may limit further appreciation of the rupee following the US-India trade agreement [1] - Barclays and Nomura predict that the RBI will utilize this rupee rebound to purchase US dollars, with Nomura forecasting the rupee to depreciate to 94 per dollar by May, while Barclays suggests a tactical short position on the rupee [1][2] - The RBI's foreign exchange strategy under Governor Sanjay Malhotra is seen as unpredictable, complicating the assessment of the current rupee rally [1] Group 2 - The RBI sold a significant amount of dollars last year, estimated by Nomura at a net sale of $49.5 billion, to support the rupee, yet the foreign exchange reserves have reached a record high of $709 billion due to a weaker dollar and rising gold prices [2] - The key observation point is the exchange rate level at which the RBI will purchase dollars to rebuild reserves, as the central bank has intervened in the market to buy rupees during recent low points [2] - Barclays recommends a tactical short position on the rupee, citing that the current rally is unsustainable, while MUFG suggests establishing a long position on the dollar/rupee in the medium term [2] Group 3 - The primary impact on the bond market will be transmitted through the foreign exchange market and the RBI's intervention strategy, with short-term capital inflows providing the RBI an opportunity to rebuild reserves and inject liquidity into the rupee [3]