美伊局势扰动仍在 原油继续保持偏强震荡格局

Core Viewpoint - Crude oil futures are experiencing a significant upward trend, with the main contract reaching 462.0 yuan per barrel, marking a substantial increase of 2.71% [1] Group 1: Inventory and Production Data - As of January 31, Japan's commercial crude oil inventory increased by 654,790 thousand liters to 9,905,950 thousand liters [2] - Japan's gasoline inventory decreased by 23,192 thousand liters to 1,695,734 thousand liters [2] - Japan's kerosene inventory fell by 126,993 thousand liters to 1,803,582 thousand liters [2] - The average operating rate of Japanese refineries is 87.7%, down from 91.1% the previous week [2] Group 2: Geopolitical and Market Dynamics - Analysts from DNB indicate that if India halts purchases of Russian crude oil, Russia may struggle to find buyers for its substantial supply [2] - The U.S. has agreed to reduce tariffs on Indian imports to 18% in exchange for India ceasing its procurement of Russian crude, raising questions about the future flow of these oil supplies [2] - Marathon Oil (MRO.N) stated that its refineries, including Garyville, can quickly adapt to process Venezuelan crude oil [2] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Price Fluctuations - Donghai Futures reports that tensions between the U.S. and Iran are escalating, contributing to renewed geopolitical risk premiums in the oil market [4] - API data indicates a significant decline in U.S. commercial inventories by 11 million barrels, which has improved market sentiment previously dampened by precious metals [4] - Hongyuan Futures notes that oil prices rebounded in the previous trading day, recovering some of the earlier losses, with expectations of fluctuating negotiations between the U.S. and Iran impacting market sentiment [4]