印度真要“背刺”俄罗斯？特朗普官宣大捷，新德里这一反应耐人寻味

Group 1 - Trump claims Modi has agreed to completely stop purchasing Russian oil in exchange for reducing tariffs to 18%, but Modi's response does not mention oil [1][5] - Modi praised Trump's announcement of a long-awaited trade agreement but remained cautious regarding the oil commitment, indicating that negotiations are still ongoing [1][6] - The potential cessation of Russian oil purchases could strain India's strategic partnership with Moscow and increase financial pressure on the Russian government amid the Ukraine conflict [1][6] Group 2 - India's reliance on Russian oil has decreased significantly, from over 2 million barrels per day at its peak to about 1 million barrels currently [2][6] - The U.S.-India Strategic Partnership Forum's CEO believes India may not fully stop purchasing Russian oil but is likely to reduce its procurement, with specific timelines still under negotiation [2][6] - Any reduction in India's oil purchases could exacerbate Russia's financial difficulties, as its energy revenues are projected to decline by 24% year-on-year by 2025 [2][6] Group 3 - Reliance Industries and other Indian refiners previously relied heavily on Venezuelan oil, which is attractive due to its lower prices compared to Russian oil [3][7] - If Venezuelan oil flows resume, it could provide opportunities for Indian refiners, although the best substitutes for Russian oil may come from similar grades in the Middle East [3][7] - Recent data indicates that India's oil purchases from Qatar and Kuwait have doubled compared to January 2024 [7] Group 4 - Nayara Energy, owned by Russia's state oil company, is a major player in India's procurement of Russian oil, and experts suggest that India is unlikely to completely halt purchases without strong government pressure [8]