中信证券：餐饮行业逐步进入修复阶段 板块中期展望积极

Industry Overview - The restaurant industry is transitioning into a recovery phase primarily driven by fundamental improvements, with a positive mid-term outlook [1] - Since the second half of 2025, there has been a clear trend of marginal improvement in restaurant operations, with a notable increase in same-store sales across various segments such as fast food, tea drinks, coffee, and Western cuisine [1][5] - The competition within the industry is easing, creating favorable conditions for existing businesses to recover and improve profitability [1][5] Policy Impact - The restaurant sector is a key beneficiary of consumer stimulus policies due to its characteristics of high frequency, low single transaction amounts, and short decision-making chains [2] - Recent policies aimed at boosting restaurant consumption have shown effective results, as evidenced by the significant improvement in Shanghai's restaurant revenue following the issuance of consumption vouchers [2] Pricing Dynamics - Since the fourth quarter of 2025, there have been signs of improvement in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), with expectations for a reasonable recovery in prices in 2026 [3] - Major restaurant chains like KFC and McDonald's have begun to adjust their pricing strategies, indicating resilience in consumer demand and their own pricing power [3] Valuation Insights - The valuation of the restaurant sector is significantly influenced by CPI trends, with a recovery in inflation expectations likely to enhance long-term growth prospects and drive valuation expansion [4] - Leading restaurant companies possess stronger supply chain capabilities and pricing power, which positions them well to navigate through economic cycles and achieve systematic valuation uplift [4] Recovery Factors - The restaurant industry is gradually entering a recovery phase driven by multiple factors, including improved consumer spending, supportive policies, and strategic pricing adjustments [5] - The historical impact of raw material cost fluctuations on profitability is expected to be more of a temporary disturbance rather than a long-term constraint, providing a foundation for margin recovery [5]