长江有色：4日铸造铝期价偏强上行 现货交投无亮点

Core Viewpoint - The aluminum alloy market is experiencing a price increase driven by various macroeconomic factors, including changes in U.S. Federal Reserve leadership and geopolitical tensions, despite a cautious demand outlook as the Chinese New Year approaches [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The main aluminum alloy futures contract (2603) surged to 22,595 yuan, up 580 yuan, reflecting a 2.632% increase, with a trading volume of 8,206 lots, down 7,133 lots, and an open interest of 4,530 lots, down 293 lots [1]. - The spot prices for aluminum alloys have also risen, with ADC12 quoted at 23,500-23,700 yuan/ton, averaging 23,600 yuan/ton, an increase of 200 yuan; A356.2 at 25,700-26,100 yuan/ton, averaging 25,900 yuan/ton, up 400 yuan; A380 at 24,900-25,100 yuan/ton, averaging 25,000 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan; ZL102 at 25,200-25,400 yuan/ton, averaging 25,300 yuan/ton, up 400 yuan; and ZLD104 at 25,100-25,300 yuan/ton, averaging 25,200 yuan/ton, up 400 yuan [1]. Group 2: Macroeconomic Influences - Recent fluctuations in the metal market are largely influenced by the nomination of hawkish representatives to the U.S. Federal Reserve, prompting a reassessment of monetary policy by investors [1]. - Positive signals from U.S. manufacturing data, with the PMI rising to 52.6, the highest since August 2022, typically support a stronger dollar; however, the dollar index fell by 0.12% to 97.42, indicating a return to market rationality [1]. - Geopolitical risks, including ongoing U.S.-Iran tensions and a recent government funding agreement in the U.S., have heightened global risk aversion, impacting gold and silver prices and creating a ripple effect in the metal markets [1]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The aluminum alloy market is currently characterized by a cautious demand outlook, with traders hesitant to enter the market, leading to a lack of significant trading activity [2]. - The supply of scrap aluminum remains tight, providing some price support, but as the Chinese New Year approaches, demand is expected to weaken, resulting in a decline in operational rates among aluminum casting enterprises [2]. - Overall, the supply-demand fundamentals for aluminum casting remain relatively unchanged, with market sentiment expected to dominate short-term price movements, likely keeping prices within a high range [2].