债市日报：2月4日

Market Overview - The bond market experienced a slight decline on February 4, with all major government bond futures closing lower. The 30-year main contract fell by 0.23% to 111.7, while the 10-year main contract decreased by 0.01% to 108.24 [2] - The interbank market showed mixed performance, with the 10-year government bond yield for "25附息国债16" rising by 0.15 basis points to 1.8125%, while the yield for "25国开15" decreased by 0.05 basis points to 1.957% [2] International Bond Market - In North America, U.S. Treasury yields were mixed, with the 2-year yield rising by 0.01 basis points to 3.570%, while the 10-year yield fell by 0.59 basis points to 4.266% [3] - In Asia, Japanese bond yields fell across the board, with the 10-year yield down by 0.4 basis points to 2.252% [4] - In the Eurozone, bond yields collectively increased, with the UK 10-year yield rising by 1.1 basis points to 4.516% [4] Primary Market - The Ministry of Finance reported weighted average winning yields for 91-day and 2-year government bonds at 1.2432% and 1.3285%, respectively, with bid-to-cover ratios of 3.41 and 4.25 [5] - The Export-Import Bank's 2-year and 3-year financial bonds had winning yields of 1.5498% and 1.6047%, with bid-to-cover ratios of 5.1 and 4.92 [5] - Agricultural Development Bank's financial bonds for 1.0356-year, 3-year, and 10-year terms had winning yields of 1.4634%, 1.6000%, and 1.9711%, with bid-to-cover ratios of 3.2, 2.69, and 4.01 [5] Funding Conditions - The central bank conducted a 750 billion yuan reverse repo operation at a rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net withdrawal of 302.5 billion yuan for the day [6] - Short-term Shibor rates mostly increased, with the overnight rate rising by 0.1 basis points to 1.318% [6] Institutional Insights - CITIC Securities anticipates a probability of reserve requirement ratio cuts in Q2 2026 due to narrowing net interest margins and expected government bond issuance pressure [8] - Guotai Junan highlights the challenges in managing short-term interest rate fluctuations to ensure stable financial market operations and support fiscal bond issuance [8]