胡捷：黄金基本面本质是市场集体情绪，最具波动且难以预测

Core Viewpoint - The recent volatility in international gold prices, including a significant drop and subsequent rise above $5000 per ounce, raises questions about the suitability of gold as a hedge against inflation for ordinary investors [1][4] Group 1: Market Reactions and Influences - The nomination of former Fed governor Walsh as the new Fed chair led to a sharp decline in gold prices, indicating a strong market reaction to perceived monetary policy shifts [3][4] - Analysts, including those from Goldman Sachs, suggest that the market misinterpreted Walsh's monetary policy stance, which may not be as hawkish as initially thought [3] - The emotional response to Walsh's nomination acted as a catalyst for a speculative drop in gold prices, highlighting the fragility of market sentiment [4] Group 2: Historical Context and Market Sentiment - Historical trends show that gold prices have experienced extreme volatility, with significant increases and decreases over decades, influenced by market narratives and collective emotions [5][7] - The current gold market is characterized by a shift in sentiment, where geopolitical factors have become a primary driver of price movements, diminishing the correlation with dollar liquidity [7] - Central banks in countries like India and Turkey have significantly increased their gold reserves, contributing to a bullish sentiment in the market, although this sentiment is now perceived as unstable [7][8] Group 3: Asset Classification and Pricing Dynamics - Assets can be categorized into cash-flow generating assets and non-cash-flow assets, with gold falling into the latter category, where pricing is heavily influenced by buyer psychology and market emotions [6][8] - The pricing of non-cash-flow assets like gold is determined by the expectations of future buyers, making it susceptible to emotional fluctuations in the market [8]