RBI may pivot to buying Dollars to build reserves, analysts say

Core Viewpoint - The recent significant rally of the Indian rupee, the largest in seven years, may provide the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) with the opportunity to rebuild its foreign-exchange reserves, although this could limit further gains following the India-US trade deal [1]. Group 1: Market Predictions and Strategies - Barclays Bank Plc and Nomura Holdings Inc. predict that the RBI will utilize the rupee's recovery to purchase dollars, with Nomura forecasting the rupee to reach 94 to a dollar by May, while Barclays aims for the same level through a three-month offshore position [2]. - Barclays advises clients to tactically short the rupee, anticipating that the current rally will not be sustainable and that equity outflows will not fully reverse [9]. - MUFG Bank Ltd. recommends clients to build long dollar/rupee positions in the medium term [9]. Group 2: RBI's Intervention and Market Dynamics - The rupee experienced a slight decline of 0.1% to 90.40 against the dollar, following a 1.4% increase attributed to a US tariff cut, which helped it recover from being Asia's worst performer last month to the region's top gainer [3]. - The RBI has a significant negative short forwards book of $62.4 billion as of December, indicating a need to repay these dollars, which contributed to the rupee's underperformance in the second quarter of 2025 [5]. - The RBI sold a net $49.5 billion in dollars in 2025 to support the rupee, while forex reserves reached a record $709 billion, aided by a weaker dollar, rising gold prices, and RBI's forex swaps [6]. Group 3: Future Outlook and Analyst Opinions - Analysts at Societe Generale predict the rupee could strengthen to 87-88 in the coming weeks, while HSBC forecasts a move to 88 by the end of March [10]. - Standard Chartered Plc suggests that while the RBI may eventually rebuild reserves, it seems unlikely at current levels, with HSBC expecting the central bank to allow the rupee to recover in the March quarter before rebuilding reserves [7]. - The RBI's recent interventions have aimed to buy rupees as the currency tested lows, with officials stating that the exchange rate is market-determined and their role is to ensure orderly movements and curb excess volatility [8].