Jin Rong Jie·2026-02-04 11:32Core Viewpoint - The performance forecasts for A-share listed companies in 2025 reveal a clear picture of China's economic transition, with a notable divergence between industries, highlighting the shift from traditional reliance on factors to innovation-driven high-quality development [1][17]. Industry Performance Overview - As of January 30, 2026, 55.36% of A-share companies disclosed their 2025 performance forecasts, with a slight increase in the positive forecast rate to 36.08% from 33.38% in 2024, indicating a gradual recovery in profitability [1]. - The financial and non-ferrous metal sectors showed significant growth, while traditional industries like real estate and photovoltaics faced ongoing performance pressures [3][8]. Positive Forecasting Industries - The top five industries with the highest positive forecast rates in 2025 are non-bank financials (87.5%), non-ferrous metals (65.8%), beauty care (53.85%), automotive (53.68%), and public utilities (50.94%) [5][18]. - Non-bank financials benefited from a recovering capital market and improved investment returns, leading to a robust performance [5][18]. - The non-ferrous metals sector saw a profit increase driven by rising commodity prices and improved capacity release, with major companies like Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum reporting strong results [7][8]. Underperforming Industries - The real estate and photovoltaic sectors are experiencing significant challenges, with forecast rates below 20% for coal and real estate, indicating a deep adjustment phase [8][10]. - Major real estate companies, including Vanke and Greenland Holdings, are expected to report substantial losses, reflecting ongoing market difficulties [10][11]. New Growth Drivers - New productivity sectors, particularly in artificial intelligence, semiconductors, and high-end manufacturing, are witnessing explosive growth, becoming the core engine of A-share profitability [12][17]. - Companies like Cambricon are expected to report significant revenue growth, driven by increasing demand for AI applications [13][19]. Policy Support and Future Outlook - The government is enhancing support for new productivity sectors through policies promoting AI and digital technology integration, which is expected to sustain growth in these industries [19][20]. - Traditional industries are also encouraged to transform and upgrade, with a focus on high-quality development and overcoming transition challenges [19].