Novo Nordisk shares tumble 18% after 2026 sales dip warning

Core Viewpoint - Shares in Novo Nordisk have significantly declined following a forecast indicating a drop in sales and profit growth for 2026, which is below analyst expectations due to pricing and patent expiry challenges [1][2]. Sales and Profit Outlook - Novo Nordisk anticipates a potential sales decline of up to 13% at constant exchange rates (CER) for the upcoming year, marking the first sales decrease in years [1] - Adjusted operating profit growth is also expected to decrease by 13% at CER [1] - The 2026 guidance for sales and operating profit is projected to be 8% and 10% below consensus estimates, respectively, at the midpoints [2] Recent Performance - In 2025, Novo reported CER sales growth of 10%, reaching DKr 309 billion [3]. Pricing and Policy Impact - The weak outlook for 2026 is attributed to pricing pressures in the US, particularly due to President Trump's Most Favored Nation (MFN) policy, which led to a pricing deal that significantly reduced prices for its semaglutide brands [4] - The agreement was made in the context of potential tariffs on imported drugs, which posed a significant risk to Novo, as the US is its most profitable market [5] Patent Expiry and Competition - Patent expiries for semaglutide in markets such as Brazil, Canada, and China have negatively impacted the sales outlook for 2026 [6] - Increased competition from Eli Lilly's products, including tirzepatide brands Zepbound and Mounjaro, has further constrained Novo's market share in the obesity treatment sector [6] Market Position - Novo Nordisk has seen a decline in its market value, slipping down the rankings of the most valuable companies in Europe, while Eli Lilly has achieved a trillion-dollar market cap, highlighting the contrasting fortunes of the two companies [7]