欧元区CPI降至1.7% 核心通胀创近5年来最低! 欧洲央行“按兵不动”预期强化

Group 1 - Eurozone inflation has dropped further below the European Central Bank's (ECB) target of 2%, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising only 1.7% year-on-year in January, down from 1.9% the previous month, marking the lowest level since September 2024 [1][4] - The core inflation rate, excluding volatile food and energy prices, unexpectedly fell to 2.2%, the lowest since October 2021, while the service sector inflation rate decreased to 3.2% [1][4] - Economists widely expect the ECB to maintain borrowing costs at 2% for the fifth consecutive time during the upcoming monetary policy meeting, despite some concerns about persistent low inflation potentially leading to economic weakness in the Eurozone [4][9] Group 2 - Among the 21 Eurozone member countries, inflation rates vary, with Germany's inflation at approximately 2.1%, slightly above expectations, while France recorded an unexpected low of 0.4%, the lowest in five years [5] - The decline in inflation in France is attributed to significant drops in manufactured goods prices, particularly in clothing and footwear, driven by seasonal discounts and increased domestic sales due to export pressures [8] - The prevailing economic uncertainty, highlighted by external factors such as tariff threats, has led ECB policymakers to advocate for a flexible stance on interest rates [8] Group 3 - The mainstream expectation among economists is that the ECB will likely maintain the interest rate at 2% throughout 2026, with a small probability of rate cuts unless inflation remains persistently below target and there is a notable cooling in service and wage inflation [9]