全球能源转型遇电力系统安全梗阻 中国如何破局

Group 1 - The global energy security focus is shifting from high-carbon to low-carbon energy, with fossil energy security being relatively controllable, while electricity system security risks are increasingly prominent [1][2] - In 2025, global fossil energy supply is expected to grow by 1.9% year-on-year, with demand increasing by 0.9%. Oil production is projected to rise by 2.4%, natural gas by 3.1%, and coal by 0.5% [2][3] - The global electricity demand grew by 3.3% last year, nearly double the growth rate of overall energy demand, and is expected to continue to outpace energy demand growth this year [2][3] Group 2 - By 2025, renewable energy is projected to account for 51.5% of total installed capacity, while the share of flexible adjustment power sources like pumped storage will drop to 6.2%, leading to a long-term challenge in maintaining stability, cleanliness, and balance in the electricity system [3] - Electricity system accidents are expected to account for 75% of global energy security incidents in 2025, highlighting the need for improved resilience in energy systems [3] - China’s energy security situation is improving, with a total energy production of approximately 5.2 billion tons of standard coal last year, and a self-sufficiency rate of 84.4% [4][5] Group 3 - The domestic energy structure in China is expected to continue optimizing, with coal undergoing clean and efficient transformations, and oil and gas production increasing [5][6] - By 2026, China's total energy consumption is projected to reach 6.35 billion tons of standard coal, with domestic energy production at 5.37 billion tons, further increasing the self-sufficiency rate to 84.6% [6]