美股前瞻 | 三大股指期货涨跌不一，市场静待美财政部发债计划和ADP数据，Alphabet(GOOGL.US)盘后公布财报

Market Overview - US stock index futures showed mixed performance, with Dow futures up 0.25% and S&P 500 futures up 0.19%, while Nasdaq futures fell 0.11% [1][2] - European indices had varied results, with Germany's DAX down 0.23%, UK's FTSE 100 up 1.21%, France's CAC40 up 0.95%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 up 0.24% [2] Oil Market - WTI crude oil rose 0.44% to $63.49 per barrel, while Brent crude oil increased by 0.31% to $67.54 per barrel [3] Software Sector - A panic over AI replacing software is causing a significant sell-off in global software stocks, with Morgan Stanley stating the industry is in a state of "presumed guilty" [4] - Nvidia's CEO Jensen Huang refuted claims that AI will replace software, calling such ideas "illogical" and emphasizing that AI will rely on existing software [5] Geopolitical and Economic Insights - UBS CEO Sergio Ermotti indicated that geopolitical turmoil may persist for the next decade, prompting clients to diversify investments away from US assets [6] - The Financial Stability Board (FSB) warned about the risks of basis trading, which could trigger a crisis in the bond market due to leveraged financing [7] Company Earnings and Forecasts - Alphabet (GOOGL.US) is expected to report Q4 revenue of $111.45 billion, a 15.53% year-over-year increase, with a focus on Google Cloud's order backlog [8] - Eli Lilly (LLY.US) forecasts a 27% increase in sales by 2026, reaching $80-83 billion, driven by strong performance in weight loss and diabetes medications [9] - Uber (UBER.US) reported a 22% increase in Q4 bookings but issued a weak earnings outlook, leading to a 6% drop in stock price [10] - AMD (AMD.US) reported a 34% increase in Q4 sales but expressed concerns over Q1 forecasts, which fell short of market expectations [11] - Lumentum (LITE.US) exceeded expectations with Q2 revenue of $665 million, a 65% increase, and provided strong guidance for Q3 [12] - Electronic Arts (EA.US) reported mixed Q3 results, with revenue below expectations but strong pre-order numbers driven by the release of "Battlefield 6" [13] - Emerson Electric (EMR.US) exceeded Q1 earnings expectations and raised its full-year profit guidance [14] - Novartis (NVS.US) warned of profit declines in 2026 due to increased competition from generics [15] - UBS (UBS.US) reported a 56% increase in Q4 net profit, exceeding expectations, and announced a $3 billion stock buyback plan [16] Upcoming Economic Data - Key economic data releases include US ADP employment change, durable goods orders, factory orders, and ISM non-manufacturing PMI [20][21][22][23]