Barnes (US:B) ZACKS·2026-02-04 13:41Core Viewpoint - Barrick Mining Corporation's shares have increased by 50.8% over the past three months, driven by a surge in gold prices due to geopolitical tensions, economic uncertainties, and a weaker U.S. dollar [1][7]. Performance Comparison - Barrick has outperformed the Zacks Mining – Gold industry's increase of 35.8% and the S&P 500's rise of 4.3% in the same period [2]. - Among peers, Newmont Corporation, Kinross Gold Corporation, and Agnico Eagle Mines Limited have seen increases of 48.6%, 48.2%, and 26.5%, respectively [2]. Stock Technicals - Barrick's stock broke above its 50-day simple moving average (SMA) on May 30, 2025, and is currently trading above its 200-day SMA, indicating a long-term uptrend [5]. - The 50-day SMA has been above the 200-day SMA since April 9, 2025, suggesting a bullish trend [5]. Production Growth Projects - Barrick is advancing key gold and copper projects, including Goldrush, Fourmile, Lumwana, and Reko Diq, which are expected to significantly boost production [8]. - The Goldrush mine aims for 400,000 ounces of production per annum by 2028, while the Fourmile project is anticipated to yield grades double those of Goldrush [9]. - The Reko Diq project is designed to produce 460,000 tons of copper and 520,000 ounces of gold annually in its second phase, with first production expected by the end of 2028 [9]. - The $2 billion Super Pit Expansion Project at Lumwana is expected to deliver 240,000 tons of copper production annually [10]. Financial Position - Barrick has a strong liquidity position with cash and cash equivalents around $5 billion and generated operating cash flows of approximately $2.4 billion in the third quarter, up 105% year over year [11]. - Free cash flow surged to around $1.5 billion from $444 million in the prior-year quarter [11]. - The board authorized a share repurchase program of up to $1 billion, with $1 billion repurchased in the first nine months of 2025 [12]. Dividend and Valuation - Barrick offers a dividend yield of 1.5% with a payout ratio of 32%, indicating sustainability [14]. - The stock is currently trading at a forward price/earnings ratio of 13.74X, a premium to the industry's average of 13.24X, but at a discount to peers like Agnico Eagle, Newmont, and Kinross Gold [24]. Earnings Outlook - Earnings estimates for Barrick have been revised upward, with the Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 and 2026 indicating year-over-year rises of 80.2% and 58.4%, respectively [21]. Production Challenges - Barrick expects attributable gold production for 2025 to be in the range of 3.15-3.5 million ounces, a decline from 3.91 million ounces in 2024, primarily due to reduced production from certain mines [20]. - Higher production costs are anticipated, with cash costs per ounce of gold and all-in-sustaining costs (AISC) projected to increase year-over-year [18][19].