金丰来:贵金属深蹲后开启强力反弹

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market is undergoing a valuation reshaping driven by a "super rebound" as risk aversion fluctuates and macro policy signals become clearer [1][2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Gold and silver have shown strong resilience, with bullish funds demonstrating a strong bottom-fishing intent after previous volatility [1][2] - The approval of government funding bills and the resolution of the shutdown crisis have positively impacted gold and silver prices, lifting them out of a downturn [1][2] - The improvement in policy expectations has led to a recovery in risk appetite, halting irrational price declines and establishing a solid short-term bottom technically [1][2] Group 2: External Factors and Opportunities - The recent weakness of the US dollar index and stable crude oil prices around $62.75 per barrel serve as clear bullish signals for precious metals as anti-inflation assets [3] - The government shutdown has delayed the release of key economic data, creating a brief "information vacuum" that makes market flows more reliant on technical guidance and sudden news [3] - In this environment, April gold futures recorded a single-day increase of over $300, closing at $4959.00, highlighting the appeal of physical assets amid uncertainty [3] Group 3: Technical Analysis and Future Outlook - Despite the rapid short-term rebound, the long-term battle between bulls and bears remains intense [3] - The previous bearish reversal pattern in gold suggests a potential top, but support levels at $4750.00 and $4690.20 remain solid [3] - Silver has successfully reclaimed the $88.17 level and is gearing up to challenge the $90.00 resistance [3] - If gold can effectively hold above the $5000.00 mark, it may initiate a new upward trend; otherwise, the market could enter a phase of wide fluctuations [3][4] Group 4: Investment Strategy - The current rise in gold and silver is a result of both macro fundamentals and technical oversold corrections [4] - Investors are advised to remain flexible in their strategies due to the absence of key inflation data [4] - Monitoring the performance of the 10-year US Treasury yield around 4.28% and whether silver can break the psychological barrier of $100.00 will be crucial indicators for the continuation of the precious metals bull market [4]