Should VNO Stock Be in Your Portfolio Ahead of Q4 Earnings?

Core Insights - Vornado Realty Trust (VNO) is expected to report a year-over-year decline in revenues and funds from operations (FFO) per share for Q4 2025 on February 9 [1][10]. Company Performance - In the last reported quarter, Vornado's FFO per share was 57 cents, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 55 cents, with year-over-year growth in same-store net operating income (NOI) and occupancy [2]. - Over the past four quarters, Vornado's FFO per share has consistently surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate, with an average surprise of 12.5% [3]. Industry Trends - The U.S. office market saw a positive demand shift in the second half of 2025, with leasing activity strengthening and vacancy rates expected to peak later this year [3]. - Net absorption for the U.S. office market turned positive in Q4 2025, ending a 12-quarter decline, although full-year absorption remained negative at 6.7 million square feet [4]. - Class A office assets are in high demand, with absorption totaling 3.5 million square feet in Q4 2025 and 9.2 million square feet for the full year [5]. Supply Dynamics - Elevated construction costs and policy uncertainty have limited new developments, with the national vacancy rate at 20.5% in Q4, a slight increase of 30 basis points year-over-year [6]. - Sublease availability has decreased in about 60% of markets, while office conversions are tightening supply [6]. Competitive Landscape - High demand for quality offices has positively impacted Vornado's leasing activity, but competition from other developers and operators has pressured the company's ability to attract tenants at higher rents [8]. - To remain competitive, Vornado is offering rent concessions, which has negatively affected its revenue growth [8]. Financial Projections - Vornado's New York revenues are projected to decline by 9.2% to $348.5 million, while total quarterly revenues are expected to be $434.8 million, reflecting a 5% year-over-year decline [11]. - The consensus estimate for occupancy in Vornado's New York office portfolio is 89.8%, up from 88.8% a year ago [12]. - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly FFO per share remains at 57 cents, indicating a 6.6% increase from the previous year [12].