Countdown to Apollo Global Management (APO) Q4 Earnings: A Look at Estimates Beyond Revenue and EPS

Core Viewpoint - Apollo Global Management Inc. is expected to report quarterly earnings of $2.03 per share, reflecting an 8.6% decline year-over-year, while revenues are forecasted to increase by 24.8% to $1.19 billion [1]. Earnings Estimates - Over the past 30 days, the consensus EPS estimate has been adjusted downward by 1%, indicating a reassessment by analysts [2]. - Changes in earnings estimates are crucial for predicting investor reactions to the stock, with empirical studies showing a strong relationship between earnings estimate revisions and short-term stock performance [3]. Key Metrics Forecast - Total Assets Under Management are expected to reach $934 billion, up from $750 billion a year ago [5]. - Segment Income from Asset Management related to Fee Related Earnings from Management fees is projected at $918.43 million, compared to $742 million in the same quarter last year [5]. - Segment Income from Asset Management related to Fee Related Earnings from Capital solutions fees and other is expected to be $195.97 million, up from $160 million year-over-year [6]. - Fee-related performance fees are estimated at $73.93 million, compared to $53 million last year [6]. - Segment Income from Retirement Services related to Spread Related Earnings from Alternative net investment income is forecasted at $331.50 million, up from $269 million a year ago [7]. - Segment Income from Principal Investing related to Realized investment income is estimated at $17.57 million, down from $32 million last year [7]. - Segment Income from Principal Investing related to Realized performance fees is projected at $280.95 million, down from $321 million year-over-year [8]. - Segment Income from Retirement Services related to Spread Related Earnings from Fixed income and other net investment income is expected to reach $3.48 billion, compared to $2.91 billion last year [9]. - Strategic capital management fees are projected at $35.24 million, up from $29 million last year [10]. - Segment Income from Principal Investing is estimated at $71.08 million, down from $139 million last year [10]. - Combined Segment Income from Retirement Services related to Spread Related Earnings is expected to be $846.85 million, slightly up from $841 million last year [11]. - Segment Income from Asset Management related to Fee Related Earnings is projected at $669.55 million, compared to $554 million a year ago [12]. Stock Performance - Apollo Global Management shares have decreased by 16.9% over the past month, contrasting with a 0.9% increase in the Zacks S&P 500 composite [12].