ADP Payrolls Come in Way Below Expectations

Market Overview - Pre-market futures have shown a recovery from early lows, influenced by Q4 earnings reports and private-sector job numbers, with the Dow up by 142 points and the S&P 500 up by 10 points, while the Nasdaq is down by 66 points [1] Employment Data - Private-sector payrolls for January reported by ADP came in at +22K, significantly below expectations, and down from a revised +37K the previous month, marking the first back-to-back monthly job gains since April and May of the previous year [2] - Services employment accounted for most of the private-sector hires, with +21K in services compared to only +1K in goods-producing sectors; Healthcare Services led with +74K hires, followed by Financial Services with +14K and Construction with +9K, while Professional & Business Services lost -57K jobs [3] - ADP Chief Economist noted that hiring trends are following consumer demand rather than technology advancements, indicating a disconnect between stock market performance and private-sector job growth [4] Sector Insights - The job gains in the Construction sector may hint at increased labor demand due to data-center buildouts, although it is considered premature to draw definitive conclusions [5] - A new ADP methodology revealed a downward adjustment of -212K fewer hires for the private sector in 2025, reducing total expected hires from +771K in 2024 to +398K in 2025, which may provide a clearer picture of the labor market [6] Earnings Reports - Eli Lilly & Co. reported a +7.9% earnings surprise with earnings of $7.54 per share and revenues of $19.29 billion, driven by strong performance in diabetes and weight loss drugs [8] - AbbVie reported earnings of $2.71 per share, exceeding estimates of $2.66, while Novartis reported $2.03 per share, beating consensus by 4 cents; however, AbbVie shares fell by -3% despite the positive earnings [9] - Phillips 66 reported earnings of $2.47 per share, surpassing expectations of $2.11 and significantly improving from a loss of -$0.15 per share in the same quarter last year, with shares up by +1.3% in pre-market trading [10]