"Tale of Two Markets:" Everyone Else Wins in Software "DeepSeek Moment"

Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing a rotation away from tech, with a focus on other sectors, despite the S&P 500 showing a down day. This indicates a more complex market environment where breadth is positive even if index performance appears weak [2][3]. Market Dynamics - The S&P 500 equal weight index is up almost 1%, indicating a rotation into sectors like materials and financials, while energy is also gaining [4]. - The S&P 500 is heavily influenced by tech, communication services, and consumer discretionary sectors, which together account for 55% of the index. A lack of participation from these sectors can dampen overall index performance [3]. Sector Performance - There is a notable decline in large-cap software stocks, with the iShares software ETF (IGV) hitting a relative strength index (RSI) of 16, indicating it is oversold [5][6]. - Despite potential for a bounce in oversold conditions, concerns remain about the disruptive impact of AI on business models and competitive pressures on pricing and margins [7]. Earnings Insights - The earnings beat rate has decreased to 77% from above 80%, with earnings beats performing better than revenue beats. This trend could indicate potential market weakness if it continues [11][12]. - Historical context shows that the last significant market downturn was driven by mega-cap stocks, suggesting that excluding these from analysis may reveal a more stable market condition [12][13]. Investor Sentiment - Investors are increasingly focused on guidance and external factors, particularly regarding AI investments and their expected returns, indicating a shift in how companies are evaluated [14].