宏观宽松+成本托底共振 不锈钢行情长期看多逻辑能否持续？

Core Viewpoint - The recent sell-off in technology stocks due to Microsoft's AI spending disclosure and the hawkish Federal Reserve nominee has impacted the non-ferrous metal sector, but the core support remains unchanged with global monetary easing continuing to support the manufacturing upcycle and steady growth in stainless steel demand [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The stainless steel market is experiencing a price increase across various products, with January prices for 304 round bars rising by 1,750 CNY/ton to 13,900 CNY/ton and 316L round bars increasing by 2,200 CNY/ton to 25,100 CNY/ton [1]. - The price of 304 wire rods has risen by 1,200 CNY/ton to 14,600 CNY/ton, while 316L wire rods have increased by 2,300 CNY/ton to 26,700 CNY/ton [2]. - Overall, the stainless steel sector is expected to see positive demand post-holiday, despite short-term fluctuations in the global financial market [2]. Group 2: Raw Material Supply - Nickel supply is projected to decline significantly by 2026, driven by signals from Indonesian authorities, which will support nickel prices and provide a cost foundation for stainless steel [1]. - The price of nickel pig iron is showing a strong upward trend, reinforcing the cost support for stainless steel prices, which is a core positive factor for the industry [1]. Group 3: Long-term Outlook - Despite short-term market volatility, the long-term upward trend for the stainless steel sector remains intact, supported by macroeconomic easing and the tightening of nickel supply from Indonesia [3].