申万宏源证券赵伟：扩内需看服务消费 增活力靠服务业开放

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of "consolidating the foundation" and "comprehensive efforts" as dual guiding principles for China's economic strategy in 2026, the first year of the 14th Five-Year Plan [1][2] - Key areas of focus include service consumption, "new" infrastructure, and green investment, which are expected to significantly influence the economic trajectory for the year [1][3] Economic Strategy - "Consolidating the foundation" refers to strengthening the industrial system, market foundation, and institutional framework established during the 13th Five-Year Plan [2] - "Comprehensive efforts" indicates an acceleration in policy implementation across development and reform sectors [2] - The concept of "strategic initiative" highlights the increased proactivity of the government in coordinating domestic economic work and international trade dynamics [2] Growth Drivers - The two main drivers for economic growth in 2026 are the sustained release of service demand and increased investment in "new" infrastructure and green transformation [3][4] - Service consumption is expected to gain momentum as GDP per capita surpasses $10,000, leading to a shift from goods consumption to service consumption [3] Investment Focus - Three key investment directions are identified: 1. Continuous investment in emerging industries such as artificial intelligence, commercial aerospace, high-end equipment, and biomanufacturing, where China has established global advantages [4] 2. "New" infrastructure aimed at enhancing economic system efficiency, including digitalization and transportation hub development [4] 3. Green transformation investments aligned with carbon neutrality goals, focusing on foundational capabilities like carbon tracking and upgrades to energy systems [4] Service Sector Opportunities - The service sector is viewed as a significant "investment blue ocean" and innovation platform, requiring new supply models and physical scenarios to support service consumption [5][6] - Government investment in public services has been increasing since 2025, creating favorable conditions for service consumption [6] - The aging population and changing demographics present ongoing opportunities in healthcare, wellness, and lifestyle services, driving market expansion in these areas [6]