Shang Hai Zheng Quan Bao·2026-02-04 18:12Group 1 - The coal market is experiencing a surge, with the Wande Central Enterprise Coal Concept Index and the Wande Coal Mining Selected Index rising by 7.61% and 7.58% respectively, leading to several stocks hitting the daily limit [2] - Short-term coal prices may be influenced by the suspension of spot coal exports by Indonesian miners, while the medium to long-term outlook suggests an improvement in the coal supply-demand fundamentals, with annual price levels expected to rise [2][3] - The coal market is entering a pre-holiday state, with some private coal mines halting production for the Spring Festival, while state-owned mines maintain stable output to ensure supply, resulting in a marginal reduction in overall production [3] Group 2 - The National Bureau of Statistics indicates that by 2025, the national output of industrial raw coal is projected to reach 4.83 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.2%, marking a historical high [4] - In 2025, Shanxi Province's raw coal output is expected to be 1.305 billion tons, reflecting a growth of 2.1%, while the government report suggests that coal production will stabilize around 1.3 billion tons by 2026 [5] - The Xinjiang region's coal production is rapidly increasing, with a projected output of 553 million tons in 2025, a year-on-year growth of 1.9%, although this growth rate is significantly slowing compared to previous years [5] - Analysts predict that with Indonesia's coal production targets significantly reduced for 2026, the supply contraction will strengthen, potentially leading to a return to a balanced supply-demand state and a price recovery to the range of 750 to 1000 yuan per ton [6]