有色市场：结构分化 波动加剧

Core Insights - In 2025, the profits of China's large-scale non-ferrous metal industry reached a record high of 528.45 billion yuan, marking a 25.6% increase from the previous year, driven primarily by aluminum, gold, and copper [2][3] - The non-ferrous metal market is expected to experience structural differentiation and increased volatility in 2026, with potential for further price increases [2][3] - The global supply constraints, particularly in copper and nickel, alongside strong demand from sectors like electric vehicles, are anticipated to support non-ferrous metal prices in 2026 [3][5] Profit Performance - The profit contributions from major metal varieties in 2025 included aluminum (38 billion yuan), gold (21.2 billion yuan), and copper (17.7 billion yuan), with lead-zinc, tungsten, molybdenum, and rare earths also contributing significantly [2] - The overall profit growth contribution rates for these six major varieties were 35%, 20%, 16%, 7%, 5%, and 5% respectively [2] Market Outlook - The macroeconomic environment is expected to remain supportive, with a continued global interest rate reduction cycle and robust domestic policies, which will provide a solid foundation for non-ferrous metal prices [2][3] - The anticipated structural growth in demand, particularly in the renewable energy and electric vehicle sectors, is expected to bolster nickel demand by approximately 5% annually [5] Supply Constraints - Supply-side constraints are projected to persist, with limited global copper mine output and reduced nickel production from Indonesia, while domestic electrolytic aluminum capacity approaches its ceiling [3][5] - The aluminum market is expected to maintain a tight balance, with high-cost alumina production potentially exiting the market due to regulatory measures [3] Regulatory Challenges - The implementation of the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) starting January 1, 2026, is expected to increase operational costs for non-ferrous metal companies, with an estimated CBAM cost of 2.44 million euros for aluminum products exported to the EU [6][7] - The CBAM will impose higher compliance thresholds, potentially excluding high-carbon products from the EU supply chain, which could lead to increased logistical and channel pressures for companies [6][7]