Market Overview - The S&P 500 is down about half a percent, while the Nasdaq has decreased by approximately one and a half percent, and small caps are down over 1%. Conversely, the Dow is up over half a percent [1]. Software Sector Weakness - There is notable weakness in the software sector attributed to concerns over AI disruption, with companies like Palantir experiencing double-digit declines following earnings reports [2][3]. - The investment community appears fatigued with AI narratives, leading to a lack of significant price recovery in the software sector [3]. Market Rotation - The market is undergoing an internal rotation rather than a broad decline, with shifts from software to semiconductors, large caps to small caps, and from tech to industrials, energy, and materials [4]. - Currently, there is a rotation from momentum strategies to quality strategies, with significant declines in momentum ETFs [5][6]. Sentiment and Selling Pressure - The software sector is experiencing indiscriminate selling, which may be overdone, presenting potential buying opportunities despite the ongoing disruption concerns [7][9]. - Earnings in the software sector have been revised higher by 10% since September, yet the group is facing a 30% drawdown, indicating a disconnect between fundamentals and price action [11]. Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to focus on cash-rich companies and quality stocks, as fundamentals are becoming more aligned with price action in various market segments [10]. - The current environment suggests that while there may be opportunities, a cautious approach is warranted, with a preference for individual stock selection over broad ETFs [20][25]. Future Outlook - The software sector is expected to experience continued volatility, particularly with upcoming earnings reports and uncertainty surrounding the new Fed chair [16][17]. - There is a significant multiple compression in the software sector, currently at about 32%, which may eventually stabilize and reverse [18].
Here's how to navigate the pullback in software stocks
Youtube·2026-02-04 18:50