【环时深度】减少对美依赖，加拿大的战略转身？

Core Viewpoint - Canada is facing increasing pressure from the United States, leading to a growing national consensus on the need for independence and reduced reliance on the U.S. [1][7] Trade and Economic Strategy - The Canadian government, under Prime Minister Carney, has announced a significant economic strategy aimed at doubling exports to markets outside the U.S. by 2035, which is currently progressing steadily [4][5] - Canada signed a trade agreement with Indonesia in September 2025, aiming for 95% of Canadian exports to enjoy duty-free access within a year [5] - Canada is also pursuing closer cooperation with ASEAN in energy, defense, and investment sectors, and has engaged in negotiations with India to double bilateral trade by 2030 [5] Defense and Security Measures - In response to perceived threats from the U.S., Canada is planning to establish a new civil defense force and conduct military exercises for the first time in nearly a century to simulate strategies against potential U.S. aggression [4][9] - The Canadian government has acknowledged its over-reliance on the U.S. in defense spending and is taking steps to address this issue [9] Diplomatic Relations - Canada is actively working to repair strained diplomatic relations, particularly with China, as evidenced by Prime Minister Carney's recent visit, which is the first by a Canadian Prime Minister to China since 2017 [6] - Public sentiment in Canada is shifting towards a desire for reduced dependence on the U.S., with over 70% of Canadians willing to accept slower economic growth for greater independence [7] Historical Context and Future Outlook - Historically, Canada has attempted to reduce its dependence on the U.S. but has often faced challenges due to the attractiveness of the U.S. market [8] - The current efforts by the Carney government may signify a strategic shift rather than a temporary reaction, as there is a growing recognition that dependence on the U.S. has become a weakness [9][10] - The concept of "middle powers" is emerging, with Canada advocating for collaboration among these nations to create a more balanced international order [10][11]