智通财经网·2026-02-04 23:49Core Viewpoint - The home appliance sector is expected to underperform the CSI 300 index in 2025 due to tariff increases, fluctuations in the trade-in policy, and high base expectations in the second half of the year. Long-term competitiveness will return to product innovation and efficiency advantages, with two main investment themes: overseas expansion as a key growth source and transformation dividends [1]. Group 1: Black Goods Market - Domestic demand is gradually under pressure, while Chinese companies accelerate overseas expansion and enhance their positions in high-end markets. The internal sales stimulus effect is weakening, and external sales expectations are improving. The overall shipment volume of the Chinese television market is projected to decline by 6.8% year-on-year in 2025, with retail sales expected to drop by about 10% [2]. - The "national subsidy" policy's continuation is uncertain, and if no alternative stimulus is provided, the shipment volume in 2026 may decline by over 10%. However, the upcoming sports events in 2026 are expected to boost overseas television demand, making overseas market expansion a priority for Chinese television companies [2]. Group 2: Market Share and Competition - TCL and Hisense have increased their domestic and international market shares, with both companies exceeding 13 million units in global shipments in the first half of 2025, achieving a global market share of over 14%. Hisense's domestic and overseas market shares are 21.1% and 12.7%, while TCL's are 18.9% and 13.8% respectively [3]. - The competitive landscape is shifting as Samsung's market share has decreased, providing Chinese brands with significant opportunities to capture market share. Hisense and TCL are expected to lead the global market within three years, with a focus on maintaining growth in global market share [3]. Group 3: High-End Market Trends - The high-end television market is experiencing a recovery, with global high-end television shipments and revenue increasing by 40% and 21% year-on-year respectively in Q2 2025. The average size of televisions shipped globally has also increased, indicating a trend towards larger screens [4]. - MiniLED technology is gaining traction in the high-end market, with its shipment volume and revenue growing by 101% and 66% year-on-year in Q2 2025, respectively. This trend is reducing the importance of OLED technology in the high-end segment, benefiting Chinese brands that promote MiniLED televisions [4]. Group 4: Profitability and Structural Upgrades - Chinese brands are capturing more high-end market share, with TCL's global shipments of televisions 65 inches and above increasing by 26.9% year-on-year in Q2 2025. The average size of TCL's global shipments has risen to 53.4 inches, with significant growth in quantum dot and MiniLED television shipments [5]. - The shift towards larger and higher-end televisions is a key factor in improving profitability for brands like Hisense and TCL, as they leverage their advantages in MiniLED technology and competitive pricing in the LCD segment [5].