智通财经网·2026-02-05 00:55Group 1: Market Overview - The market in January transitioned from event-driven risk aversion to concerns over global order restructuring, with expanding global trust fractures and structural contradictions in silver supply and demand driving gold and silver prices higher [1] - For February, the expectation is that gold and silver will not experience a trend reversal, but attention should be paid to the marginal changes brought by subsequent risk events and potential shifts in U.S. macroeconomic expectations [1] Group 2: Gold Fundamentals - Total gold supply for the first three quarters of 2025 is projected at 3,717 tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.2%, with Q3 supply reaching a historical high of 1,313 tons, up 3% year-on-year [2][3] - Gold demand for the same period is expected to grow by 1% to 3,717 tons, corresponding to a value of $38.4 billion, a 41% year-on-year increase, with Q3 demand also hitting a record high [3] - Investment demand remains dominant, with global gold ETF holdings increasing significantly by 222 tons, and gold bar and coin demand surpassing 300 tons for the fourth consecutive quarter [3] Group 3: Central Bank Gold Purchases - Central bank gold purchases have continued to mitigate the pressure from U.S. interest rate hikes, with approximately 2,500 tons bought since 2022, despite a net outflow of 745.6 tons from gold ETFs during the same period [5] - Emerging market central banks, including those from China, Turkey, Poland, and India, continue to increase their gold reserves, with Poland planning to purchase an additional 150 tons [5] Group 4: Silver Fundamentals - Since Q3 2025, silver has shown a relatively independent market performance, driven by long-term supply-demand contradictions and a low valuation compared to gold [8][9] - The silver market has been experiencing a supply-demand gap since 2021, exacerbated by the rapid growth of the photovoltaic industry, which has created new demand for silver [10] Group 5: Silver Demand in Industrial Applications - The demand for silver in the photovoltaic sector is expected to face challenges due to a trend of reduced silver consumption per unit, with projections indicating a decrease in silver powder production for photovoltaic applications [13][14] - The development of electric vehicles and data centers is anticipated to provide marginal demand increases for silver, with automotive silver demand projected to grow by 3.4% annually from 2025 to 2031 [15]