泉果基金月度观点： AI为核心的科技创新仍是市场主线

Market Overview - In January 2026, the equity market experienced a strong start driven by ample liquidity and policy expectations, with major indices showing a pattern of initial gains followed by a pullback, indicating a significant increase in market risk appetite [1][10] - The Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index rose by 3.76%, 5.03%, and 4.47% respectively, with the average daily trading volume in A-shares reaching a historical high of 3.04 trillion yuan, a substantial increase from December [1][10] - The Shanghai Composite Index hit a new high of 4190.87 points, but the momentum was curtailed mid-month due to regulatory adjustments and large-scale redemptions of broad-based ETFs, shifting the market from a "fast bull" to a "structural slow bull" [1][10] Sector Performance - Growth style outperformed value style, with the Sci-Tech 50 index, representing AI computing power and semiconductor equipment, surging by 12.3%, while the CSI Dividend Index only increased by 3.5% [1][10] - The non-ferrous metals sector led the gains with a 22.6% increase, driven by soaring precious metal prices and rising resource prices. The media sector benefited from the improved sentiment in AI marketing and gaming, rising by 17.9%, while the oil and petrochemical sector increased by 16.3% due to geopolitical risks pushing oil prices up [1][10] - The banking sector was the only one to experience a significant decline, dropping by 6.6% due to the impact of large ETF redemptions [1][10] Investment Outlook - In the AI sector, the increasing stock of chips has accelerated the iteration speed of AI models, with a clear trend of model differentiation. The emergence of Clawdbot highlights the strong capabilities of large models and the demand for suitable product forms [3][12] - The non-ferrous metals sector is expected to experience volatility, influenced by geopolitical events and the potential for a shift in monetary policy under the new Federal Reserve chair nomination. Despite short-term corrections, the long-term upward trend for precious and non-ferrous metals is anticipated to continue due to ongoing central bank gold purchases and supply constraints [4][13] Investment Strategy - The company maintains an optimistic outlook for the 2026 equity market while remaining vigilant about potential risk events. A proactive and diversified investment approach is recommended to retain flexibility for timely responses [5][14] - Key focus areas include AI-driven technological innovation, which is expected to continue evolving rapidly, and the infrastructure supporting AI applications, such as GPUs and power supply [5][14] - The insurance sector is highlighted for its growth potential due to rapid increases in liabilities and sustainable investment returns [6][14] - There is a positive long-term outlook for gold, copper, aluminum, and rare metals, with caution advised regarding short-term price reactions in futures and stock prices [6][14] - Continued attention is recommended for the lithium battery supply chain, internet, gaming, and offshore wind industries [7][15]