中物联： 2026年1月中国大宗商品价格指数为125.3点 同比上涨12.7%

Core Insights - The China Commodity Price Index (CBPI) for January 2026 reached 125.3 points, marking a month-on-month increase of 6.3% and a year-on-year increase of 12.7%, the highest since July 2022 [1][3] - The increase in the index is attributed to optimistic business expectations and ongoing production expansion, supported by government policies [1] - However, challenges arise from international geopolitical changes, loose monetary policy expectations, and volatile commodity futures prices, necessitating careful risk assessment and macroeconomic policy adjustments [1] Price Index Summary - The CBPI increased to 125.3 points from 117.9 points in December 2025, with significant contributions from various sectors [3] - The energy price index decreased to 94.6 points, down 3.2% month-on-month and down 11.6% year-on-year [3] - The chemical price index rose to 99.3 points, up 3.8% month-on-month but down 9.8% year-on-year [3] - The black metal price index increased to 79.2 points, up 2.2% month-on-month and down 1.6% year-on-year [3] - The non-ferrous metal price index surged to 159.6 points, up 9.9% month-on-month and up 26.6% year-on-year [3] - The agricultural product price index slightly increased to 98.3 points, up 0.2% month-on-month and up 5.7% year-on-year [3] - The mineral price index fell to 71.3 points, down 0.3% month-on-month and down 10.3% year-on-year [3] Commodity Price Movements - Among 50 monitored commodities, 33 (66%) saw price increases while 17 (34%) experienced declines [4] - The top three commodities with the highest month-on-month price increases were lithium carbonate (up 48.4%), refined tin (up 20.2%), and refined nickel (up 19.5%) [4] - The commodities with the largest month-on-month price declines were corrugated paper (down 13.1%), caustic soda (down 7%), and coke (down 6.9%) [4] Comparative Analysis - The CBPI trends align with the Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December, which saw a month-on-month increase of 0.2% [5] - The CBPI has shown a consistent upward trend alongside international commodity indices such as CRB and S&P GSCI [5] - Geopolitical tensions in North America and the Middle East, along with a weakening US dollar, have contributed to rising international oil prices and record highs in copper prices [5] - January saw historical highs in gold and silver prices, although significant declines occurred later in the month due to margin adjustments and Federal Reserve announcements [5]