玻璃：煤价带动叠加产线冷修预期 玻璃高开高走化

Core Viewpoint - The glass market is experiencing stable prices in the short term, with a slight increase in futures prices driven by coal prices and production line maintenance expectations [3]. Group 1: Current Market Conditions - On February 4, the cash price for 5mm float glass in the Shahe market remained stable at 11.75 yuan per square meter, approximately 1006 yuan per ton [1]. - The national average price for float glass is around 1100 yuan per ton [1]. - The main futures contract FG605 increased by 3.36% to 1109 yuan per ton, although there was a slight decline in the night session [3]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - As of January 31, there are 296 float glass production lines in China, with 213 currently in operation [2]. - The daily melting capacity of float glass was 151,000 tons, remaining stable compared to January 22 [2]. - The average operating rate for the float glass industry is 71.96%, with a slight increase of 0.34 percentage points [2]. - The average capacity utilization rate is 75.7%, remaining unchanged [2]. - The comprehensive production and sales rate for sample enterprises is around 80% [2]. Group 3: Inventory and Profitability - As of January 29, total inventory for float glass sample enterprises was 52.564 million heavy boxes, a decrease of 652,000 heavy boxes, or 1.22% [2]. - The average inventory days are 22.8 days, a decrease of 0.3 days from the previous period [2]. - Weekly average profits for float glass using natural gas as fuel were -155.12 yuan per ton, with a slight increase of 3.57 yuan per ton [2]. - Weekly average profits for float glass using coal gas were -68.50 yuan per ton, a decrease of 3.39 yuan per ton [2]. - Weekly average profits for float glass using petroleum coke were 1.07 yuan per ton, with an increase of 2.85 yuan per ton [2]. Group 4: Market Outlook - The glass market is currently characterized by low melting capacity and average utilization rates, with demand primarily driven by essential purchases as downstream enterprises conclude pre-holiday stockpiling [3]. - High inventory levels are suppressing further price increases, with a focus on the glass price stabilizing around 1000 yuan per ton [3].