PTA：1季度季节性累库预期下 驱动有限 PTA高位震荡

Spot Market - On February 4, PTA futures experienced a slight increase, with a subdued trading atmosphere in the spot market and a strong spot basis. The trading range for prices was between 5080 and 5190, with some transactions occurring at -68 and 60 basis points for the 05 contract [1] Profitability - As of February 4, the PTA spot processing fee was around 405 yuan/ton, while the processing fees for TA2603 and TA2605 contracts were 489 yuan/ton and 439 yuan/ton, respectively [2] Supply and Demand - Supply: As of January 29, PTA operating rates remained stable at 76.6% - Demand: By January 30, with the approach of the Spring Festival, polyester production cuts increased, leading to a decline in overall load to 84.2% (a decrease of 2%). On February 4, the price of polyester yarn saw a local decline, and overall sales were weak. Despite a rebound in gold, silver, and stock markets, the macro atmosphere improved, and raw material prices slightly increased, factories were promoting sales, but the results were unsatisfactory. High yarn prices and the gradual holiday schedule for downstream sectors significantly affected stocking sentiment. Future attention will be on raw material price trends and factory maintenance plans for the Spring Festival [3] Market Outlook - After the release of cost-side risks, the chemical sector has seen some recovery from low levels. The trading atmosphere in the downstream has improved, and the PTA basis has strengthened. In February, there are no new maintenance plans for PTA, while demand is expected to decline around the Spring Festival, leading to a low point in polyester operating rates for the year and a weak supply-demand outlook for PTA, with expectations of significant inventory accumulation. Before the Spring Festival, PTA's self-driven demand is weak, but in the second quarter, a tighter supply-demand balance is anticipated, providing some support for low prices. The strategy suggests that TA05 will oscillate between 5100 and 5400 in the short term, with a rolling low-long operation; TA5-9 is expected to be in a low-position spread [4]