Xin Lang Cai Jing·2026-02-05 02:28Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs has raised the net profit forecasts for China Merchants Energy Shipping Company (01138) by 11% and 12% for 2026 and 2027 respectively, reflecting higher freight rates, and increased the target price for its Hong Kong stock by 48% to HKD 16, while raising the target price for its A-shares (600026.SH) by 10% to RMB 18, maintaining a "Buy" rating [1][5] Group 1 - Goldman Sachs believes that international freight rates still have further upside potential due to the exit of shadow fleets and sanctioned fleets from the market, which will result in effective capacity being lower than market expectations [1][5] - The firm anticipates that China Merchants Energy will benefit from this round of rising freight rates and assumes that oil transportation from Venezuela will shift from shadow fleets to mainstream fleets [1][5] Group 2 - In extreme scenarios, if sanctions on Russian or Iranian oil are fully lifted, it could further accelerate the exit of shadow fleet capacity, as non-sanctioned oil would no longer require shadow fleets for transportation [1][5] - The shadow fleets are unlikely to return to mainstream or compliant fleets due to the generally older age of these vessels, increasing maintenance needs, and rising regulatory risks, which should lead to their dismantling [1][5] - According to data from Clarksons and S&P Global, currently, 18% and 16% of the total tanker capacity, measured by deadweight tonnage, belongs to shadow fleets and sanctioned fleets respectively [1][5]