长江有色：节前资金谨慎铅价横盘僵持 5日铅价或涨跌不大

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the lead market is experiencing a weak balance between supply and demand, with domestic lead ingot and smelter inventories accumulating, which suppresses lead prices, while overseas inventory reduction provides slight support [1][2] - The supply side shows that the processing fees for lead concentrate are at low levels, and the price of recycled batteries remains strong, pushing up smelting costs. However, domestic lead ingot social inventories have reached a two-month high, creating pressure that offsets the benefits of supply reduction [1][2] - Demand is characterized by a decline in domestic lead-acid battery production and low procurement volumes as pre-holiday demand wanes. Although overseas demand shows slight recovery, it is insufficient to counterbalance the core weakness in the market [1][2] Group 2 - The industry chain reflects a dual weakness in supply and demand, with the core feature being the differentiation in inventories between domestic and international markets. Both upstream and downstream are contracting, leading to a suppression of lead prices domestically, while overseas inventory reduction provides slight traction [2] - Leading companies, such as Yuguang Gold Lead, are expected to see steady growth in performance by the end of 2025, with increased lead production capacity and ongoing overseas resource development and technology research [2] - The spot trading environment is characterized by a pre-holiday effect, with light trading and stable discounts. The primary lead spot prices follow narrow fluctuations in futures, and after the end of downstream demand replenishment, procurement has ceased, further suppressing trading activity [2]