中银国际：容量电价政策发布 储能有望打开成长空间

Core Viewpoint - The demand for energy storage is showing a high growth trend, supported by national capacity pricing policies and the need for stable power sources, which will open up space for new energy installations [1][2]. Group 1: National Policies and Market Dynamics - In January 2026, China will implement a national capacity pricing policy to encourage the construction of stable power sources, which will support high-yield investment opportunities for power companies during the 14th Five-Year Plan [1][2]. - The capacity pricing policy aims to balance power supply security, green energy transition, and efficient resource allocation, impacting various energy sectors including coal, natural gas, pumped storage, and new energy storage [2]. Group 2: Energy Storage Project Economics - The estimated return on investment for a storage project, assuming an investment of 0.9 CNY/Wh and a peak-valley price difference of 0.3 CNY/kWh, is approximately 6.5% for a 100MW/400MWh storage station with 300 discharge cycles per year [3]. - With the current capacity pricing policy, the project return can exceed 8%, enhancing the attractiveness of energy storage investments and stimulating interest from state-owned enterprises [3]. Group 3: Growth Projections for Energy Storage - In 2025, China is expected to add 66.43 GW/189.48 GWh of new energy storage capacity, representing year-on-year increases of 52% in power scale and 73% in energy scale [4]. - The domestic energy storage installation is projected to maintain a high level of activity in 2026-2027, indicating a robust market outlook [4].