China National Gold (SH:600916) Jin Tou Wang·2026-02-05 05:41Core Viewpoint - The domestic precious metals market is experiencing a decline, with gold futures showing a significant drop in price, indicating a bearish trend in the market [1]. Group 1: Gold Production and Consumption - In 2025, domestic gold production is expected to reach 381.339 tons, an increase of 4.097 tons or 1.09% year-on-year. Imported gold production is projected at 170.681 tons, up by 13.817 tons or 8.81% year-on-year. Total gold production, including domestic and imported sources, is estimated at 552.020 tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 17.914 tons or 3.35% [2]. - The total gold consumption in China for 2025 is forecasted at 950.096 tons, a decrease of 3.57% year-on-year. This includes a significant drop in gold jewelry consumption, which is expected to be 363.836 tons, down 31.61% year-on-year. In contrast, gold bars and coins are projected to increase to 504.238 tons, a rise of 35.14% year-on-year [2]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Economic Indicators - The U.S. economic data presents mixed signals, with January ADP employment numbers increasing by 22,000, which is below the expected 48,000. However, the ISM non-manufacturing PMI stands at 53.8, indicating economic resilience. The market is awaiting the upcoming non-farm employment data [4]. - The geopolitical tensions related to Greenland's sovereignty are accelerating the de-dollarization process in Europe. In the medium to long term, the global dollar reserve ratio is expected to continue declining, which may benefit gold's monetary attributes [4]. - The introduction of new tax policies on gold may significantly impact domestic physical gold demand, particularly in the jewelry sector. Despite this, the central bank's gold purchases and investment demand are crucial to offset the decline in jewelry demand [4].