张尧浠:金价维持反弹动力 保持低多看涨为主

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices showed resilience despite fluctuations, indicating a potential for upward movement if prices remain above $5,100, with bullish momentum strengthening [1][10]. Price Movement Summary - Gold opened at $4,964.16 per ounce, reached a high of $5,091.72, then fell to a low of $4,854.61 before closing at $4,964.45, resulting in a daily fluctuation of $237.11 and a gain of $28.65 or 0.58% compared to the previous day's close of $4,935.80 [1][11]. Influencing Factors Summary - The price increase was initially supported by buying momentum from the previous day, but geopolitical tensions and better-than-expected U.S. service sector PMIs led to a price pullback. However, the ADP employment data indicated a slowdown in the labor market, which provided some support for gold prices [2][12]. Market Outlook Summary - The outlook for gold remains positive, with expectations of continued buying support. The geopolitical situation is causing market reactions to diminish, indirectly benefiting gold prices. Upcoming data on initial jobless claims is anticipated to be favorable for gold [4][14]. Fundamental Analysis Summary - Current liquidity risks and profit-taking from historical highs have largely been resolved. The easing geopolitical tensions are unlikely to exert sustained pressure on gold prices. Additionally, indications from Federal Reserve officials suggest significant room for interest rate cuts this year, which is expected to support gold prices [6][14]. Technical Analysis Summary - On a monthly basis, gold prices have rebounded after touching a support level from January's upward trend, indicating the potential for a new bull market. Weekly analysis shows a pattern suggesting a high-level consolidation, with bullish probabilities outweighing bearish ones [8][17]. Daily charts indicate that gold remains above key moving averages, with a preference for bullish positions [17]. Trading Strategy Summary - Suggested trading levels include support at $4,940 or $4,890/$4,760, and resistance at $5,120 or $5,220 for gold. For silver, support is noted at $88.20 or $86.10, with resistance at $94.30 or $97.40 [9][17].