Nat-Gas Prices Move Higher on a Mixed US Weather Forecast

Group 1: Natural Gas Price Movements - March natural gas prices closed higher by +0.074 (+2.29%) on Tuesday, recovering from a 25% plunge on Monday due to mixed US weather prospects [1] - Natural gas prices surged to a 3-year high last Wednesday, driven by a massive storm and an Arctic blast of cold weather, which caused freeze-ups in gas wells and disrupted production [2] - The EIA reported a larger-than-expected draw in natural gas inventories for the week ended January 23, with a decrease of -242 billion cubic feet (bcf), compared to the market consensus of -238 bcf [6] Group 2: Production and Demand Statistics - US dry gas production was reported at 110.5 bcf/day (+5.1% year-on-year) on Tuesday, while gas demand was at 110.6 bcf/day (+26.7% year-on-year) [3] - Estimated LNG net flows to US LNG export terminals were 19.1 bcf/day (+43.8% week-on-week) [3] - The EIA cut its forecast for 2026 US dry natural gas production to 107.4 bcf/day from a previous estimate of 109.11 bcf/day, indicating supportive conditions for prices [4] Group 3: Electricity Output and Its Impact - US electricity output in the week ended January 24 fell -6.3% year-on-year to 91,131 GWh, although the output for the 52-week period rose +2.1% year-on-year [5] - As of February 1, gas storage in Europe was reported to be 41% full, compared to the 5-year seasonal average of 57% full for this time of year, indicating ample natural gas supplies [6]