邦达亚洲:日本政治不确定担忧萦绕 美元日元刷新8日高位

Group 1: Employment Data - In January, the U.S. private sector added 22,000 jobs, significantly below the market expectation of 45,000 and revised down from December's 41,000 to 37,000 [1][6] - The education and healthcare sectors contributed 74,000 jobs, while several industries, including professional and business services, saw a reduction of 57,000 positions and manufacturing cut 8,000 jobs [1][6] - Wage growth remained stable, with employee salaries increasing by 4.5% year-on-year, indicating a persistent "low hiring, low firing" state in the job market since late 2025 [1][6] Group 2: Monetary Policy Insights - Lucy Ellis, Chief Economist at Westpac, warned that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) may be forced to raise interest rates for the second consecutive time in March, being the first major central bank to enter a tightening cycle in 2026 [2][7] - Ellis noted that if data leading up to the March meeting shows stronger momentum, a rate hike could occur sooner than expected, although her core prediction remains for May [2][7] - The RBA's inflation trajectory is deemed unacceptable, prompting a desire for quicker inflation reduction [2][7] Group 3: Market Reactions - Gold prices experienced slight gains due to renewed expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, supported by the weak "small non-farm" report [3][8] - The U.S. dollar index's rebound limited gold's upward movement, with current trading around 4890, facing resistance near 5000 and support at 4800 [3][8] - The USD/JPY pair rose to a new eight-day high, trading around 156.90, influenced by the dollar index's strength and concerns over the Japanese elections [4][9] - The AUD/USD pair saw a slight decline, trading at approximately 0.6970, affected by profit-taking and the dollar index's rebound, with resistance at 0.7050 and support at 0.6900 [5][10]