Core Viewpoint - The international gold price has experienced a significant decline, dropping to $4,836.18 per ounce, a decrease of $127.36 or 2.65% from the previous trading day, indicating a bearish trend in the market [1] Economic Indicators - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has postponed the release of the January non-farm payroll report from February 6 to February 11 due to a government shutdown, which has also delayed the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report [1][2] - Economists expect approximately 60,000 new jobs in January, with the unemployment rate remaining steady at 4.4%. However, ADP data shows only a 22,000 increase in private employment, suggesting a slowdown in job growth [2] - The upcoming employment report will include annual data revisions, indicating that employment growth until March 2025 is expected to be significantly weaker than initial estimates [2] Market Impact - The delay in the non-farm payroll and CPI reports has created an "information vacuum," leading to increased reliance on Federal Reserve officials' statements and previous data for interest rate predictions [2] - A significant downward revision in employment data, combined with tax cuts and slowing inflation, could provide justification for the Federal Reserve to adopt a more dovish stance, impacting the pricing of the U.S. dollar, gold, U.S. Treasuries, and risk assets [2] Gold Market Analysis - The gold price has faced resistance around the $5,111 level, and after reaching the trendline resistance at $5,020, it has subsequently declined [4] - The current price action indicates a weakening structure, with a potential head and shoulders pattern forming, suggesting further downside risk [4] - Key resistance levels to watch are between $4,950 and $4,990, with a short position considered in this range, targeting a price of $4,930 [4] - Strong support levels are identified at the six-month line and the 200-period moving average, around $4,700 and $4,670, respectively, which may serve as critical defensive levels [4]
非农CPI推迟至2月11发布 金价陷头肩顶施压
Jin Tou Wang·2026-02-05 06:39