申万宏源：美联储换帅在即，大类资产影响几何？

Core Viewpoint - The market is reacting to Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh as the new Federal Reserve Chair, perceived as "hawkish," leading to significant fluctuations in global asset prices, including a rise in the dollar index and declines in U.S. stocks and precious metals [1][5][26]. Monetary Policy Outlook - The company believes that the market may be pricing in a hawkish shift from the Federal Reserve too quickly, as the views and actions of the new chair may differ from previous statements [2][6]. - In the short term, the Federal Reserve is likely to lower interest rates rather than pursue a rapid balance sheet reduction, which is expected to be a lengthy process [2][6]. - The core issue remains how inflation will be managed, with potential paths including fiscal discipline or production changes [2][6][27]. Impact on U.S. Stocks - Increased volatility is expected in the U.S. stock market, with a balanced style emerging. The market's short-term reaction to Warsh's nomination was moderate, with institutional buying interest noted [3][28]. - Key variables affecting the stock market include earnings verification and inflation trends, with the S&P 500 expected to see earnings growth exceeding 15% in 2025-2026 [3][28]. - If Warsh promotes a "small government + bank easing" model, it could benefit small-cap stocks, manufacturing, and financial sectors, while large-cap growth stocks may see valuation corrections [3][28]. Impact on Precious Metals and Commodities - The long-term bullish outlook for gold and silver remains intact, despite short-term volatility. The market is advised to wait for a return to lower volatility before making significant moves [4][29]. - The supply-demand fundamentals for industrial metals like copper and aluminum remain strong, supported by declining mine grades and demand from AI and new energy sectors [4][29]. - Oil prices may face upward pressure if geopolitical tensions escalate, particularly if prices exceed $80 per barrel, which could raise mid-term inflation risks [4][29].