中国光伏行业协会，最新研判

Core Insights - The China Photovoltaic Industry Association held a seminar on February 5, discussing the development roadmap for the photovoltaic industry from 2025 to 2026, predicting a decline in new installed capacity in 2026 compared to 2025 [1][9] Group 1: Industry Forecast - The new installed photovoltaic capacity in China for 2026 is expected to be between 180GW and 240GW, a decrease from 315.07GW in 2025 [1][9] - The global new installed capacity for 2026 is projected to be between 500GW and 667GW, down from 580GW in 2025 [11] - From 2027 onwards, both the Chinese and global markets are expected to return to an upward trend, with China's capacity reaching between 270GW and 320GW by 2030 [1][9][11] Group 2: Key Initiatives by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will focus on four key areas in 2026, with a primary emphasis on addressing industry internal competition [5][6] - The ministry aims to enhance standards and quality supervision, implementing mandatory national standards to curb issues like false power ratings and quality control violations [5][6] - Innovation-driven development will be prioritized, supporting a collaborative innovation system among industry, academia, and research to advance next-generation technologies [5][6] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Strategic Shifts - The industry is expected to shift from a focus on scale and price competition to value competition, driven by new policies and market conditions [11][12] - Companies are encouraged to explore new growth avenues, such as developing technology barriers and expanding into new photovoltaic applications like energy storage and hydrogen energy [12] - The international market is experiencing varied trends, with stable growth in Europe, a downward adjustment in the U.S. due to policy uncertainties, and rapid growth in India and emerging markets [11]