华商基金张文龙：“百年未有之大变局”底色犹在 市场表现依然可期

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced a hot 2025, but is currently in a phase of consolidation in early 2026, with significant performance differences across sectors and styles. The future market outlook remains optimistic due to various factors including a weak dollar and the potential for the RMB to appreciate slowly [1][6]. Market Overview - Emerging markets continued to lead the global bull market in Q4 2025, while the A+H market showed signs of volatility. The market experienced a "DeepSeek" moment in Q1, trade war impacts in Q2, an AI and resource boom in Q3, and a consolidation phase in Q4 [3][9]. - The structure of the market in Q4 showed that upstream resources performed well due to price drivers, while consumer and healthcare sectors experienced notable pullbacks. The technology sector presented various structural opportunities amidst the volatility [3][9]. Economic Context - The domestic economy is operating within a stable framework, with "anti-involution competition" becoming a key aspect of price governance. The real estate market remains a weak point, while the financial market benefits from the government's commitment to stabilize asset prices [3][9]. - Internationally, the U.S. faces a shift in national security strategy, leading to a partial vacuum and reconstruction of order. The U.S. economy continues to show resilience supported by AI, with the financial sector in a dual expansion phase of fiscal and monetary policies [3][9]. Industry Insights - AI development has entered a debt-driven phase, with advancements in language and world models. The hardware aspect is seeing a weakening of Moore's Law, necessitating system coupling and iterative synchronization to advance towards AGI and ASI [4][10]. - In the domestic consumption sector, households still face challenges in their balance sheets, and income expectations remain conservative, indicating a necessary transition between old and new growth drivers [4][10]. - In the cyclical sector, supply constraints and changes in demand structure continue to be key sources of yield, with the financial sector's low valuations and evolving demand structure offering promising potential for compounded returns [4][10].