长江有色：5日铸造铝期价震荡下跌 下游观望浓厚

Core Viewpoint - The aluminum alloy market is experiencing downward pressure due to a combination of weak demand, macroeconomic uncertainties, and a strong dollar impacting prices [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The main aluminum alloy futures contract (2603) closed at 21,915 CNY, down 430 CNY, a decrease of 1.92%, with a trading volume of 6,836 lots, down 1,370 lots, and an open interest of 4,361 lots, down 169 lots [1]. - On February 5, the average price for aluminum alloy ADC12 was reported at 23,500 CNY/ton, down 100 CNY; A356.2 at 25,700 CNY/ton, down 200 CNY; A380 remained stable at 25,000 CNY/ton; ZL102 at 25,100 CNY/ton, down 200 CNY; and ZLD104 at 25,000 CNY/ton, down 200 CNY [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply of scrap aluminum remains tight, supporting high-cost levels for aluminum alloy, while demand is weakening as downstream enterprises reduce operations ahead of the Spring Festival [2]. - The market is characterized by high aluminum alloy prices, with sellers reluctant to lower prices, leading to a cautious purchasing atmosphere and low trading activity [2]. - Overall, while tight supply and cost support maintain high aluminum prices, low inventory buildup intentions and fluctuating macroeconomic sentiment are expected to lead to price adjustments in the short term [2].