中金：海外煤炭供给扰动加剧 风险升温利好煤价上行

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Indonesia's coal production quota for 2026 is expected to decline significantly, reflecting the government's intention to reduce coal output to around 600 million tons, down from 820 million tons in 2025, which may tighten supply and support coal prices [1][2] - Indonesia is the world's largest exporter of thermal coal, accounting for 40%-50% of global thermal coal exports, with China importing 209 million tons of Indonesian thermal coal in 2025, representing 56% of its total thermal coal imports [1] - There is uncertainty regarding the extent of the expected production cuts, as the final approval of the RKAB is still pending, and there is ongoing negotiation between the government and the market [2] Group 2 - Domestic coal production is also expected to contract, with potential risks of revoking approvals for unqualified or incomplete capacity, which could lead to a reduction of over 100 million tons per year, potentially resulting in negative growth for domestic coal production in 2026 [3] - The international coking coal market has tightened since the beginning of the year, with prices rising by $35 per ton (or +15%) due to supply constraints from Australia, and India's recent classification of coking coal as a "key strategic mineral" may intensify competition for high-quality coking coal globally [4] - Short-term rebound potential exists for coking coal prices due to tightening supply and stable global steel demand, although Mongolia's increased export target for 2026 may limit price upside [4]