光伏协会首次发布最新装机预测，反内卷也有了新方向

Core Insights - The China Photovoltaic Industry Association forecasts that the new installed capacity of photovoltaic (PV) in China will be between 180GW and 240GW in 2026, a decline from 315.07GW in 2025 [1] - The global new PV installed capacity is expected to range from 500GW to 667GW in 2026 [1] - The average annual new installed capacity in China during the 14th Five-Year Plan (2026-2030) is projected to be between 238GW and 287GW, while the global average is estimated to be between 725GW and 870GW [1] Industry Outlook - The association believes that after a short-term adjustment, the new installed capacity will return to a growth trend, with expectations of gradual increases starting in 2027, reaching between 270GW and 320GW by 2030 [1] - Factors contributing to the anticipated decline in 2026 include market hesitance due to newly implemented policies such as distributed PV management and market-oriented pricing reforms [1] - The transition from "high-speed expansion" to "high-quality steady growth" is expected during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [1] Regulatory Environment - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology emphasizes that 2026 will be a critical year for governance in the PV industry, focusing on addressing internal competition [1] - The ministry plans to enhance collaboration among departments and implement measures such as capacity regulation, standard setting, quality supervision, and price enforcement to achieve a dynamic balance of supply and demand [1] - New mandatory national standards related to quality safety, labeling, and energy consumption limits will be introduced to combat issues like false power ratings and quality control failures [1] Technological Advancement - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will work with relevant departments to promote the industrialization of advanced PV technologies, particularly in cutting-edge areas like perovskite tandem cells, to enhance competitive advantages and technological progress [2]